Providence, R.I.; Navajo County, Arizona; most of Tennessee — these are among the next Covid-19 hotspots in the U.S., according to predictions from a Waltham-based tech firm called Cotiviti.
Formed in 2014 through a merger between Connolly and iHealth Technologies, with offices in Waltham and Atlanta, Georgia, Cotiviti is behind a software tool that uses predictive analytics to map out the counties that are at highest risk for coronavirus outbreaks. The tool takes into account medical claims, laboratory data, demographic information, social determinants of health and more to make its predictions, which Cotiviti says are about 80 percent accurate.
Cotiviti began this work nearly a year ago, when the novel coronavirus was on the precipice of slamming the U.S. Watching as the disease took out swaths of Asia, then Europe, Cotiviti assembled a task force in January 2020 to begin building the tool.
"We had the data, and we had this problem with Covid-19," said Jordan Bazinsky, Cotiviti’s executive vice president of operations for analytics, quality and payment integrity. "When we began, there was very little testing around the country. How do we bring to bear good information, given how little testing there is? We started a tracker that looked around the country and said, given the data, where there is likely to be an outbreak that has yet to be identified."
Cotiviti has also mapped out subgroups of where people have an increased relative risk of contracting Covid-19, based on comorbidities like respiratory and cardiovascular disorders, hypertension and diabetes.
Interestingly, that map does not necessarily correlate with the hotspot map, possibly due to differences in individual behaviors. (Bazinsky notes that this is a bit of a blind spot for Cotiviti's software, which does not incorporate variables like adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing.)
"In a lot of states, it's less risky for comorbid groups than non-comorbid groups," Bazinsky said. "In many areas, people with comorbidities, particularly those like diabetes or hypertension that are known to exacerbate Covid, those individuals seem to be heeding the advice of many medical professionals and doing a decent job of social distancing, wearing a mask and otherwise protecting themselves."
The Covid-19 tool is built on Caspian Clarity, Cotiviti’s longitudinal data and analytics ecosystem. All together, the data points the system takes into account represent the experience of about 40 percent of Americans.
Cotiviti unveiled Caspian in February of last year. Although its most visible application so far is the Covid-19 maps, the company believes Caspian could be used by health care providers and insurers to increase collaboration, close gaps in health care and make payment processes more efficient.
Cotiviti has made its Covid-19 insights available as part of the Covid-19 Healthcare Coalition, a group of more than 200 private-sector companies, nonprofits and universities that have pledged to collaborate to improve health care access amid the pandemic. The coalition also includes Buoy Health, MassChallenge and athenahealth, among several other Massachusetts firms. Bazinsky said Cotiviti's maps have been used "in several instances" to inform public health work but declined to name specifics.
"We are, as I think most health care organizations are, very committed to doing our part to help get all of us past Covid-19," Bazinsky said. "Anything we can do to bring to bear insights for decision-makers, we are happy to be able to do it."
