Scooters may be here to stay, 5G will be coming soon and flying cars are already on the horizon -- at least in limited fashion. But don't expect those to be the driving forces of 2019 in Austin's tech scene.
Instead, many of the founders, VCs and innovators I've chatted with about the year ahead see discussions about the use of artificial intelligence -- along with the ethical questions it raises -- being a marquee feature of 2019.
You could probably argue AI dominated 2018 as well -- and I doubt it will fall off the list in 2020. Virtually every business sector is making frantic moves to either integrate AI or accept the risk that they may fall behind the curve.
But it's not just esoteric algorithms that will capture our imaginations this year -- the growth of military-oriented tech; more powerful roles for women leaders and technologists; advances in our local health tech ecosystem; and a re-imagining of physical and digital retail are all likely to become pillars of 2019.
I assembled this list of predictions based on chats with several Austin tech leaders in the past few weeks, along with e-mail outreach, other prediction stories and my own crystal ball. This list could run long, but we've capped it at five. And here are Inno’s 5 predictions for Austin tech in 2019.
Big Money and AI
Artificial intelligence sounds so smart. But perhaps many of us not involved with it struggle to understand both what it really is and where it can bring us.
Nonetheless, AI startups were funded at a rate never seen before in 2018. And, while some predict a slightly cooler year in AI funding ahead, the innovations being fueled by the new money will emerge at a faster pace this year.
“AI is in its explosion right now. The amount of activity will continue to increase… but we’ve hit the uptick in the hockey stick in terms of investment and innovation," Jay Boisseau, an AI tech strategist at Dell, said during a 2019 outlook presentation for the Austin Forum on Technology and Society. "The principals for AI have been around for decades, but it’s only been in the last decade that we’ve had enough data and enough computational power to really handle some of the deep learning techniques that open up new areas of machine learning applications.”
And Austin's CognitiveScale, Spark Cognition and Hypergiant are all major players, with a dozen-plus others making big moves and integrating AI into their applications.
Ganesh Padmanabhan, head of business development and marketing at CognitiveScale, said he expects to see auto-adjusting and personalizing websites, intelligent chat bots and call center IVRs becoming more ubiquitous.
"Fifteen years ago, job titles such as social media manager and growth hacker didn’t exist," he wrote in an email to Inno. "The internet opened up a new class of jobs powered by connectivity and information explosion. We will see the same thing happen with AI. AI adoption will mean more and more cognitive tasks can be automated, opening up even more creative landscapes for humans to explore. Creativity and innate human capabilities that are tougher to be replicated by machines, will once again take centerstage."
Meanwhile, he said Austin will become more of a mainstream tech hub with increasingly easy access to capital.
"Talent wars between big companies and startups alike, will mean higher salaries for capable folks and more opportunities for Austinites," he write. "With the city population slated to get over 1 million, the infrastructure will start crumbling and will force innovation from both the public and private sectors. We should also start seeing at least a few startups in Austin inching towards Unicorn status this year! I'm pumped about the year's potential."
Austin Breaks Out the Camouflage
One of the biggest stories of 2018 was the addition of the Army Futures Command center in Austin. Well, last year was about setting it up and cutting the ribbons. And this year will be about seeing what they -- along with the Air Force's AFWERX and the Department of Defense's DIUx -- can really do.
Already, we're seeing how the military, traditionally known for being independent of most of the tech startup world, is reaching out in the community through panel discussions and one-on-one chats with founders.
In 2019, expect that to expand rapidly. Capital Factory already has posted new roles to work hand-in-hand with these military tech divisions and put them in touch with all kinds of local startups. That connection will deepen in 2019, and we'll see more local startups find financial opportunity with the government.
More Diversity in Key Executive and VC Roles
The gender gap in tech has been a problem for a very long time -- as have been efforts to fix it. But never have women in tech had so much momentum and support as right now, and that's encouraging almost every niche of the tech industry (and beyond) to consciously monitor the diversity of their staffs and look at new ways to eliminate intrenched bias.
"I believe 2019 will be the year that 2-3 more ATX venture capital firms will hire a female venture associate or partner," Jan Ryan, who is founder of Women@Austin and executive director of entrepreneurship and innovation at The University of Texas, wrote in an email to Inno. "If this happens it will set off a chain reaction that we will all be proud of, where more qualified female-led businesses will be seen, heard and nurtured, and the ecosystem will be strengthened. It will accelerate the vision that Women@Austin and Notley are working toward in helping Austin become #1 in female entrepreneurship."
Meanwhile, DivInc, a local inclusion-focused accelerator, has set up a new awards program called "Champions of Change," which is part of a larger movement driven by folks like BLNDED Media, Capital Factory, SXSW and countless others to make our ecosystem more inclusive.
Austin Health Tech Hits Full Stride
Apple is moving quickly into healthcare through its Apple Watch and iPhone -- to the extent that CEO Tim Cook thinks health will be Apple's greatest contribution to the world.
Meanwhile, the relatively new Dell Medical School is innovating across the medical spectrum to focus on outcomes, Jay Boisseau said.
"We're starting to see more personalized health tech," he said. "We're also starting to see more personalize medicine enabled by things like CRISPR."
Austin health tech startups saw several major fundings and acquisitions last year, and it is well-positioned for more in 2019, Jan Ryan said.
"I believe 2019 will be a breakaway year in seeing healthcare consumers become empowered through technology," Ryan said. "Especially in areas such as mental health, remote care tools, preventative and personalized solutions, we’ll see several of our most innovative Austin companies be acquired or receive large funding rounds."
Austin Retail Tech Booms and Builds with Bricks
While Inno leans toward software more than CPG and retail, Austin's exploding retail scene can't be left off this list.
After all, a boot company, Tecovas, landed one of the biggest funding rounds of Q4 2018, and it's far from alone in making big moves.
"I believe we will see a resurgence in brick and mortar retail in 2019, despite predictions these last two years for it’s death," Jan Ryan wrote. "Instead, many startups and established businesses alike are starting to recognize the value of a physical presence to deepen their relationships with their customers. But it’s not our Father’s retail, it’s about the experience today, enhanced by digital technologies. We’re already seeing this locally, whether in creative popups or Kendra Scott’s amazing community experience in her new South Congress store or Tyler Haney’s expansion of Outdoor Voices locations, or new innovations that will soon be coming from Amazon’s 2018 purchase of Whole Foods. I believe 2019 will show an expanded vision for physical retail in Austin and beyond."
